At this point I think a lot of Tool fans have taken the stance of "I won't believe there's a new album until they actually announce it." To which Tool has responded by quietly confirming the new album is on the way via a new Facebook header image. The image has Tool's classic logo with the Roman number MMXIX, or 2019, right in the center space.
So it certainly seems like the wait is finally over, everyone. There may very well be an announcement in the near future regarding new music for the first time since 2006, or at least something more concrete to report. Especially if the record is on track to be released in May or June like vocalist Maynard James Keenan said.
Frankly, the existence of new music shouldn't be a huge surprise. Tool has been ramping up their live appearances this year, and they recently posted a photo of themselves with mastering engineer Joe Barresi at Gateway Mastering Studios in Portland, ME. Metallica guitarist Kirk Hammett also recently confirmed he spoke to Tool guitarist Adam Jones, who said he was deep in the process of working on the new album's artwork.
Tool. 2019. It's happening.